As we quickly approach Saturday night's NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race at Darlington, realization sets in that the 2011 season is already one quarter of the way over.
Before too much longer, we will be coming down the home stretch to the Chase.
So, nine races into the season, is it still too early to predict who the winner will be, or have we seen enough so that we have a pretty good idea of who the top contenders are?
At this point, I feel comfortable saying that there are only six drivers with a legitimate chance of winning the title. Two of those drivers are the favorites, two of them serious threats to win, and two of them are dark horses that could pull off the potential upsets.
Without further adieu, I present the six drivers who are in championship contention in the Sprint Cup Series.
Jimmie Johnson
If you didn't think that Johnson was one of the two favorites, then you have obviously never paid attention to NASCAR.
This season has almost been a quiet season by Johnson's standings.
Through nine races, he has scored just one win, but has still posted six top-10 finishes, which is tied for second most. His 265 laps led to this point are almost the second most, and he is one of two drivers that lead the series with eight lead lap finishes.
Yet with the level of competition being as even as it has been in many years, Johnson hasn't been covered nearly as much as he normally is by this point.
But don't let that fool you, Johnson and the No. 48 team typically save their best runs for the Chase anyway.
The other favorite at this point would have to be Kyle Busch.
He is one of two drivers that have scored multiple wins thus far this season and for the most part, he has dominated the first nine races of the year.
Busch has six top-10 finishes, with five of them being inside the top-5. Of his three poor finishes, one was a result of a Talladega crash, and one was the result of a blown engine, an issue that has plagued all three members of the Gibbs organization at some point this season.
Busch currently sits third in the standings. His 719 laps led are by far a series high. He has led 454 more laps than the next closest driver.
The problem facing Busch will be the Chase. That has always been his achillies heel. Regardless of how strong of a regular season he has, he seemingly always finds trouble in the Chase, which takes him out of contention early on.
This year should be different. Through nine races, Busch seems to be at the top of his game.
The current points leader, Carl Edwards has taken the momentum that he ended 2010 with, and run with it through the early part of 2011.
Edwards has been very strong to open this season. He scored an early victory in Las Vegas, and has posted a series high seven top-10 finishes, with five of those resulting in a top-5.
Edwards worse finish has been a 28th place at Phoenix, when he was caught up in an accident, when it looked certain he would score yet another top-10 finish.
While the 133 laps that Edwards have led this year, rank him just eighth on that list, he has consistently run at the front of the field; that's what it takes to put yourself in a position to win the championship once the Chase rolls around.
Kevin Harvick
Kevin Harvick currently finds himself in fifth place in the championship standings.
He, along with Busch, has scored two victories this season, and both of those came in dramatic fashion. In his two wins, Harvick led a total of seven laps, with his first win at Fontana netting him a total of one lap led.
After blowing an engine very early in the season opening Daytona 500, which left him with a 42nd place finish, and an early hole to dig out of, Harvick has rallied back. He has a total of five top-10 finishes and since Daytona, each one of his finishes has been inside the top-20.
Like Edwards, Harvick hasn't found himself at the front of the field a whole lot this year. In fact, the 59 laps that he has led rank him only 12th in that department.
But he has been able to string together consistent runs, much like he did a year ago, when he dominated the points for most of the year.
Currently Jeff Gordon finds himself mired in 16th place in the point standings.
However, if the Chase started today, he would be in by virtue of his win in Phoenix earlier in the season.
Gordon's current point standings are not indicative of how well he has run at certain points this season. He has just three top-10's, but all five of those are top-five's. He has led at least one lap in all but two races so far, and the 192 laps that he has led are the sixth most in the series.
Gordon has had some strong runs going before bad luck caught up with him. He was strong early on in the Daytona 500 before he was involved in the big one that occurred early in the race.
Then, last week at Richmond, he was one of the top cars all race long, until late pit strategy put him in the middle of the pack, and he got caught up in another incident.
While the results aren't all great, Gordon has had quite a few strong runs, and that has to make him at least a dark horse contender for the championship.
Matt Kenseth
Matt Kenseth currently finds himself in ninth in the points.
But like Gordon, he has had a lot better runs than some of his finishes would indicate. He scored a win for the first time in over two years, earlier this season.
In total, Kenseth has four top-10 finishes, but that number could easily be seven or eight if not for some bad luck. Kenseth was taken out in crashes at both of the restrictor plate races this season, in accidents where he was just an innocent victim.
He was a front runner at both tracks when the incidents took place.
He was also involved in the accident that claimed Jeff Gordon at Richmond last weekend, after having run in the top-10 for most of the night.
Kenseth has really been strong this year after just a subpar 2010 campaign. His 198 laps led are the fifth most in the series this year, and are already 89 laps more than he led in all 36 races a season ago.
While Kenseth may not be considered one of the favorites at this point, he also warrants at least a title of dark horse contender.
So, after nine races there really only appear to be these six drivers that could challenge for the title.
There are some surprising omissions from the list.
Drivers like Denny Hamlin, Kurt Busch and Tony Stewart have all shown a few signs, but for the most part have been inconsistent in their 2011 efforts.
While the season is still fairly young, and there is still a lot of racing left to be done, the rest of the field has some work to do if they want to get into the championship mix.
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